Korea has experienced a rather rapid population aging process. The number of the elderly has increased from 1 million in 1970 to 2 million in 1990. however, the elderly will number as many as 3 million in 2000, and 5.8 million in 2020. Thus, it will take only 25 years for the number of the elderly to reach 14% of the total population from 7% in 2005.
Yet, no information is available for health manpower requirement for the care of the elderly in Korea. The objective of this study is to analyze health manpower needs with respect to the care of elderlies. This paper is specifically addressed to the projection of physicians and nurses requirement by the year 2010.
Korea has achieved its universal health insurance program in July 1999. A population component method was applied to this analysis by breaking down its population into the following four categories : those members under the employees´ health insurance, public officials and private school teachers´ health insurance, regional self-employed health insurance and those under the medical assiance program. Based upon the existing data on the utilization rate and the number of days per in -and out-patient case, this study has made estimates of the daily number of elderlies-patients that will use medical care facilities of all kinds for the coming years up to 2010. Aprojection has been made on the health manpower requirement by using the optimum physician productivity per day and other criteria defined legally and customarily.
In general, the medical care utilization rate for elderlies has increased much faster than is that for general population. This is particularly the case for inpatient. Average length of hospital stay for the aged is longer than that for the total population by 2.5 days per case. However, the difference is not remarkable for outpatient visits.
The daily number of elderlies who will use medical facilities is estimated at 346,640 in the year 2010. This is equivalent to 8.1% of the aged at 65 and over. In other words, 51.335 beds will be occupied and 295,305 physician visits will be made nearly everyday by elderlies. Three indicators for measuring physician productivity and two indicators for nurses requirement are chosen for the purpose of projection of this study.
The proportion of physicians caring for elderlies will increase from 8.7% in 1992 to 21.3% in 2010, or from 8.1% to 17.2% the same period. This difference mainly originates from variations on the medical care utilization rates of the regional self-employed health insurance program which extended to the entire target population only two years ago. Similar findings are noted for nurses.
According to the projection, the proportion of nurses caring for elderlies will be doubled during the same period. Despite the fact that the current population structure is relatively young, this study shows that the Repulic of Korea will undergo a rapid change of aging in early 2000s. As a Preparatory measure, this study tries to project health manpower requirement for the coming 20 years.
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